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deni wrote:Also "timing" AB is not possible. Even if you had 20 hits without an AB, the probabilty of getting an AB on your 21st hit is still 25% (for a LG+1), so the same as before the 1st hit

Your more likely to get 1 AB after 20 non AB's, than a chain of 21 Non AB hits, the law of probability and the law of large numbers
But it is very possible that you will also get the chain of 21 its just not that likely to be in a situation like that, If you make the several thousand attacks a day Blahh makes for example you may well run into such occurances.

Well it was never 100% predictable but getting AB usually after 3-5 non-AB hits was helpful, I have occasionally made 2 or 3 hits on nobodies to get an AB on a sweet Naq hit

12agnar0k wrote:

deni wrote:Also "timing" AB is not possible. Even if you had 20 hits without an AB, the probabilty of getting an AB on your 21st hit is still 25% (for a LG+1), so the same as before the 1st hit

Your more likely to get 1 AB after 20 non AB's, than a chain of 21 Non AB hits, the law of probability and the law of large numbers
But it is very possible that you will also get the chain of 21 its just not that likely to be in a situation like that, If you make the several thousand attacks a day Blahh makes for example you may well run into such occurances.

Actually, deni is correct here. The probability of an AB at any point, regardless of how many fails you have had before is always 25%. The chance of getting 20 non-AB's and then an AB is, as you say, unlikely (0.07%) however.

You just have to be very careful about your wording

exactly it doesn't matter how many AB's you have or dont have...

You have a 75% of hitting normally... that is why people see more normal attacks...

They are far more likely...

Take a 4 sided dice and put numbers 1-3 as your normal hits and 4 as your Ascended blessing...

now roll the die 10 times... see if you can find a pattern... if you think there is a pattern do it 100 times then 1000 times and then 10000 times and see if that pattern still exists...

I think you will find every time you roll (for 100,1k,10k) the first 10 its highly improbable that you will get the same 10 results as your original 10.

It is possible just highly improbable.

TheRook

Theres a big difference between odds of a single event outcome and probability of outcomes over many equal events,

The same odds may apply on every attack

But

The more attacks you make without a certain result, no matter how low the odds of that result, the probability of that result occurring increases

I forget the formula, High School Math was a long time ago but I'm sure someone will be bored enough to look it up

MEZZANINE wrote:Theres a big difference between odds of a single event outcome and probability of outcomes over many equal events,

The same odds may apply on every attack

But

The more attacks you make without a certain result, no matter how low the odds of that result, the probability of that result occurring increases

I forget the formula, High School Math was a long time ago but I'm sure someone will be bored enough to look it up

Thats not entirely correct. The chance of getting say 8 AB in a row before the first attack has occured are merely 1.5%. If you already had 7 ascending blessings, the chance of getting one on your 8th attack is 25%.