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"Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:40 am
by Legendary Apophis
Many dictatorships in Arab world already fell (Tunisia, Egypt, Lybia) or are facing revolts, few regimes manage to keep the revolt down by a massive amount of repression (Iran, Algeria), some others are still fighting against the revolt (Syria, Yemen)...there are even people in India protesting, but this time, against corruption of politicians (we couldn't accuse India to be a dictatorship, reasons of protest are different, they want change of behaviour from politicians not change of regime).
In your opinion, do you think the regimes who will replace the fallen ones will be other dictatorships, total instability with coup d'états, or will they manage to have a stable regime without having a decades-in-power leader?
Also, I'm wondering, do you think that this could also have effect on the outside dictatorships, like North Korea? I personally wonder, I'm almost sure however the majority of north Korean (who live in NK) don't know what's going on (medias censorship). Do you think North Korea will face a revolution against its leader, or will its dynasty carry on for another while?
[spoiler]
North Korea is a self-described Juche (self-reliant) state,[61] described by some observers as a "hereditary dictatorship"[62] with a pronounced cult of personality organized around Kim Il-sung (the founder of North Korea and the country's only president) and his son and heir, Kim Jong-il. Following Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, he was not replaced but instead received the designation of "Eternal President", and was entombed in the vast Kumsusan Memorial Palace in central Pyongyang.[63]
Although the office of the President is ceremonially held by the deceased Kim Il-sung,[64][65][66] the de facto head of state is Kim Jong-il, who is Chairman of the National Defence Commission of North Korea and General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea. The legislature of North Korea is the Supreme People's Assembly, currently led by Chairman Kim Yong-nam. The other senior government figure is Premier Choe Yong-rim.
The structure of the government is described in the Constitution of North Korea, the latest version of which is from 2009 and officially rejects North Korea's founding ideology of communism.[67] The governing party by law is the Democratic Front for the Reunification of the Fatherland, a coalition of the Workers' Party of Korea and two other smaller parties, the Korean Social Democratic Party and the Chondoist Chongu Party. These parties nominate all candidates for office and hold all seats in the Supreme People's Assembly.
In June 2009, it was reported in South Korean media that intelligence indicates the country's next leader will be Kim Jong-un, the youngest of Kim Jong-il's three sons.
Media
North Korean media are under one of the strictest government controls in the world. The North Korean constitution provides for freedom of speech and the press; however, the government prohibits the exercise of these rights in practice. In its 2010 report, Reporters Without Borders ranked the freedom of the press in North Korea as 177th out of 178, above only that of Eritrea.[136] Only news that favors the regime is permitted, while news that covers the economic and political problems in the country, or criticisms of the regime from abroad, is not allowed.[137] The media upholds the personality cult of Kim Jong-il, regularly reporting on his daily activities. The main news provider to media in the DPRK is the Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea's first Internet café opened in 2002 as a joint venture with South Korean internet company Hoonnet. Ordinary North Koreans do not have access to the global Internet network, but are provided with a nationwide, public use Intranet service called Kwangmyong, which features domestic news, an e-mail service and censored information from foreign websites (mostly scientific).[147]
[/spoiler]
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:34 am
by RepliMagni
Outcome = higher oil prices, war with Israel, and just as much corruption as before
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:38 am
by Kit-Fox
Removed
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:41 am
by Legendary Apophis
RepliMagni wrote:Outcome = higher oil prices, war with Israel, and just as much corruption as before
I would say it's either pessimistic or realistic answer, depending on what's to be expected -and what will happen- of these events. But if the Muslim Brotherhood manages to gain influence in the upcoming elections -given their opinion on Israel and territories issues-, I'm sure that we might have sooner or later a hostile action from Egypt towards Israel. Leading to oil prices increase if it goes same path as in past (1973, 2003...)
Corruption seems to be a trend in many countries, especially those with natural resources in the third world. Makes you wonder if they will manage one day to have a clean management of their resources and politics, but that's slightly off topic.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:57 am
by Tig
RepliMagni wrote:Outcome = higher oil prices, war with Israel, and just as much corruption as before
Really won't be much difference except for oil prices.
Politics rarely changes. Take Ireland for example, years of being run by a center right party funded by property developers, ends up with the worst economic crisis the country has ever seen. Have a general election and vote in a different center right party who are funded by most of the same property developers.
This is just a fresh start for some men who may have started with good intentions but power corrupts, they'll become the people they overthrew.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:02 am
by RepliMagni
Kit-Fox wrote:Israel being involved in some sort of war with somebody is unavoidable, thanks in large part to their own actions
I'm definitely not going to absolve Israel of past actions, nor of their blocking Palestine's UN bid, but one of the few things bringing stability to the region of late was American influence - ie: in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. Not saying its a good thing, but with the rise in democracy and the relative decline in American influence....well, war will brew up soonish....
Legendary Apophis wrote:RepliMagni wrote:Outcome = higher oil prices, war with Israel, and just as much corruption as before
I would say it's either pessimistic or realistic answer, depending on what's to be expected -and what will happen- of these events. But if the Muslim Brotherhood manages to gain influence in the upcoming elections -given their opinion on Israel and territories issues-, I'm sure that we might have sooner or later a hostile action from Egypt towards Israel. Leading to oil prices increase if it goes same path as in past (1973, 2003...)
Back in Easter I travelled from Egypt to Israel - it was a month or so after the Egyptian revolts....but since then, they've opened the border with Palestine, recognised Hamas gov't, backed Palestine's stateship, and now attacked an Israel embassy....one of the few things keeping them apart was the corrupt military dictatorship - primarily because after Israel, Egypt were the second biggest receiver of American foreign military aid.....
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:18 am
by Juliette
Legendary Apophis wrote:RepliMagni wrote:Outcome = higher oil prices, war with Israel, and just as much corruption as before
I would say it's either pessimistic or realistic answer, depending on what's to be expected -and what will happen- of these events. But if the Muslim Brotherhood manages to gain influence in the upcoming elections -given their opinion on Israel and territories issues-, I'm sure that we might have sooner or later a hostile action from Egypt towards Israel. Leading to oil prices increase if it goes same path as in past (1973, 2003...)
It is in their nature to
need a dictator, and so, their states will gravitate towards dictatorships unless influenced from the outside (like the Roi Solaire's pet projects). The only ones you'll see actively protesting (as opposed to passively being part of the herd echoing some initiative by their betters) are the people who are educated above average, who can and want to think for themselves. Their naivety in thinking their fellow countrymen are doing any anything but echoing and following threatens whatever dreams they have for a 'democratic muslim state'.
Muslim states cannot be democratic. They are too angry at everything and everyone. Think I'm kidding? Just look at the democratic initiatives across the muslim world. They all fail. Without exception. The ones where you think they are doing fine, you don't have enough information about. The muslim states that work are the states that have accepted that a democracy isn't going to work for them, and have adapted their constitutions to that effect.
Legendary Apophis wrote:Corruption seems to be a trend in many countries, especially those with natural resources in the third world. Makes you wonder if they will manage one day to have a clean management of their resources and politics, but that's slightly off topic.
This too. Where 'us Westerners' are mostly to blame for Africa, the muslim world screwed itself over. Oh well. That
is off topic.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:57 am
by [KMA]Avenger
Juliette wrote:Legendary Apophis wrote:Corruption seems to be a trend in many countries, especially those with natural resources in the third world. Makes you wonder if they will manage one day to have a clean management of their resources and politics, but that's slightly off topic.
This too.
Where 'us Westerners' are mostly to blame for Africa, the muslim world screwed itself over. Oh well. That
is off topic.
You mean like like how Mohammed Mosaddegh was screwed by the west...i mean how he screwed himself?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Irani ... 7%C3%A9tatThe west have been meddling in the affairs and screwing the Muslim world ever since the days of the crusades....as they/we have been doing all over the world for centuries.
The Arab spring is no different.
Anyone seen the news of Black Libyans being beheaded by UN forces and the so called Libyan "freedom fighters"?
1 family that just so happened to have the surname of Gaddafi (not related to the dictator) was dragged out of their home and murdered.
Walter Fauntroy an ex-congressman from the US was in Libya and he witnessed the beheading of the black Libyans and went into hiding fearing for his life because of the colour of his skin.
Arab spring?! do me a favour please!
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:39 am
by Legendary Apophis
[KMA]Avenger wrote:
The west have been meddling in the affairs and screwing the Muslim world ever since the days of the crusades....as they/we have been doing all over the world for centuries.
The Arab spring is no different.
As well as Ottoman empire did involve itself in eastern Europe, Africa...for slavery among other things.
I agree with Juliette.
[KMA]Avenger wrote:Anyone seen the news of Black Libyans being beheaded by UN forces and the so called Libyan "freedom fighters"?
Walter Fauntroy an ex-congressman from the US was in Libya and he witnessed the beheading of the black Libyans and went into hiding fearing for his life because of the colour of his skin.
Arab spring?! do me a favour please!
Any
TRUSTWORTHY source for that "info"?
That *so* sounds like a hoax/false information.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:42 am
by Kit-Fox
Removed
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:51 am
by Legendary Apophis
Kit-Fox wrote:This would be the ottoman empire that existed from about 1300 right? Which would be after the first crusades.
So yeah we really did make a mess of things over there first
They didn't need the influence from the West to conquer (and enslave from time to time) from central Asia to Mediterranean sea though. Doing raids against Byzantine empire, and conquering lands off them (losing/gaining them back depending on the strenght of both sides). The West didn't really go far in the lands during crusades, it was located in west Syria and Palestine where all the battles happened, while the muslim world was also north Africa, Middle East until Afghanistan/Central Asia.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:15 am
by [KMA]Avenger
[KMA]Avenger wrote:Anyone seen the news of Black Libyans being beheaded by UN forces and the so called Libyan "freedom fighters"?
Walter Fauntroy an ex-congressman from the US was in Libya and he witnessed the beheading of the black Libyans and went into hiding fearing for his life because of the colour of his skin.
Legendary Apophis wrote:Arab spring?! do me a favour please!
Any
TRUSTWORTHY source for that "info"?
That *so* sounds like a hoax/false information.
Google his name. it's no hoax...if i thought there was even a tiny chance it was a hoax do you seriously think me fool enough to post something so easily debunked? (debunked<<<<hate that word!)
Kit-Fox wrote:This would be the ottoman empire that existed from about 1300 right? Which would be after the first crusades.
So yeah we really did make a mess of things over there first
I take it you never heard that the Ottoman Empire had time travel tech?
Sorry for the banter...i needed to get that out
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:19 am
by RepliMagni
Wikipedia is your friend
In an interview with The Afro in early September, Fauntroy claimed to have witnessed Danish and French special forces soldiers on the ground in Libya, beheading and maiming civilians and rebels alike and placing responsibility for the violence on the Libyans. He also said he believed "more than 90 percent of the Libyan people love [Muammar] Gaddafi", the Libyan strongman opposed by the rebel movement. He defended Gaddafi and condemned his opponents, including NATO, saying, "We believe the true mission of the attacks on Gaddafi is to prevent all efforts by African leaders to stop the recolonization of Africa." The Afro noted that it was unable to confirm any aspects of Fauntroy's story, and there has been no independent corroboration of his claims.[19]
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:24 am
by [KMA]Avenger
What gives his claims some weight is that many thought he was dead.
At the very least his claims need to be investigated, but it wouldn't surprise me 1 bit if he is proved correct since the UN is anything but the benevolent organisation it claims to be.
Re: "Arab Spring" and its outcome
Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:52 am
by Legendary Apophis
The Afro noted that it was unable to confirm any aspects of Fauntroy's story, and there has been no independent corroboration of his claims.
I'll take particular attention to that bit and don't take that as granted.