We can probably look at the matter through generations of stars since they had to go nova to create heavier elements that are required for life.
I think that it took the universe around 400mil years to "spawn" the first generation of stars and they were shortlived.
Now even if we asume that all life started roughly in the same generation (or better said that we`re one of the first that took advantage of the circumstances) the develpoment of life is still comperativly fast.
You have to realise there was a period of long (bil year+) stagnation in develpoment of life on earth, when cingle cell organisms (name escapes me, they piled up on layers formming coral reef type structures) ruled the earth.
Now certain natural dizasters apparently jarred the evolution forward since evolutionary jumps coincide with evidence of massive eruptions that followed a snowball earth cooling.
So out of the 4.1bil years of documented evolution apparently only 1bil of it has been of multicelular organisms, once the "push" towards it was made. It went pritty fast after that.
Thats 3.1bil years of time for some other planet passing us by by simply avoiding the stagnation in the first place or chancing uppon a circumstance that will spurr it on sooner than we did.
I mean everything is possible but its litterary a 50-50 guess heh. I hope it`s not thus, cos the galaxy would be an awfully dull place.
But then again, maybe that just means space for an Asimov style Galactic Empire. Or that we are infact the ancients.












