An Inconvenient Truth

[Baxter]

(from another topic )

now, as we all know, the words 'climate change' are being thrown around a lot recently, but is it actually happening (as in, the enhanced greenhouse effect i.e. increase of average global temperature on such a scale as to cause great detriment to humanity)?

on one side we have those such as Al Gore (and his documentary, 'an inconvenient truth' [AIT])

the other, we have climate skeptics, and to rebut An Inconvenient Truth, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monck ... rrors.html


now, i feel that it is necessary to point out many of the 'flaws' in the given website. many of the graphs do not actually contradict what is being said in AIT, but rather show only part of the picture.
for example, this graph http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/image ... ors/12.gif labelled "number of severe tornadoes increasing" yet in the paragraph concerning it, "Gore says that 2004 set an all-time record for tornadoes in the US." absolutely nothing to do with 'severe tornadoes' at all. not only this, but if 'severity' is being measured by casualties caused, then should we not also factor things such as early warning systems that enable people to know about these things first? and also the bodies such as the Red Cross being able to access affected areas faster and provide relief?



i just have to put the next part in, as it is quite funny, but slightly unrelated:
"he does not understand the elementary physics of radiative transfer."
oooh thats good. im so glad the radiative transfer on energy is so elementary.
heat transfer is a complex thing to actually understand properly, especially on a scale such as the sun warming the earth. its not as simple as heat just travelling from A to B, it actually has to be carried as kinetic energy on photons from the sun, then transformed into heat energy as the photons interact with the atmosphere, which in turn interacts with the oceans. (and that is the 'simple' explanation)


anyway, back on topic
"However, the glacial melt began in the 1820s, long before humankind could have had any effect" (concerning the melting of glaciers around the world)
humankind has been using hydrocarbon fuels since before 1850, and besides this, the glaciers are on a "180 year trend" of melting?
so that very soon, they will stop melting, and grow back again? cos its been 180 years since its started...



leaving the article, lets examine some of the recent climate occurrences in Australia over the last 50 years or so

1) the drought - im sure everyone in australia will know of it, it was huge. over 98% of the state of NSW was in drought (yes there is poor water management here). this was caused by a prolonged El Nino (which lasted almost twice as long as it should have) creating above average rainfall in South America, and dangerously low rainfall in NSW. the link between El Nino and global warming is very clear, and its not one of cause and effect, but rather of correlation. the two happen together, but neither is a cause of the other

2) an increase in temperatures - recorded temperatures over the whole of australia have been increasing (in a general trend), especially in recent years. this may or may not be related to 'global warming'/CO2 emissions

3) the great barrier reef - we all know it, and we all know its been diminishing recently. this is because of crown-of-thorns starfish, of which population numbers have been increasing in the area due to the increase in average water temperature, and "The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority considers the greatest threat to the Great Barrier Reef to be climate change"




climate change is happening, few people will disagree with me there
the cause of it, and its effects are what is in debate.
there is no doubt CO2 DOES have an effect on global temperatures, as does deforestation

[Ghoul]

Um yeah,

Lets 'use' the science of Climate Change as it has become known to ignore certain facts like 1bil + years of geological data because that is of course as we all know not a science as it contradicts the 'real' science of Climate Change with its sound basis of like 150 years of recorded temperatures.

We are coming out of an ice age longer term records I have looked at indicate. So are we warming? Probably. Can it regress just as fast and cool again? Yes.

The actual science on CO2 and other greenhouse gases shows that temperatures have been far warmer AND far colder with greater amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere across the course of the Earth's history.

Before man-made gases that are supposedly causing this irreversible trend there is strong evidence to indicate even a few 100 years ago that the Earth was warmer than it is even now- there were Grapes grown in the North of England successfully; something that cannot be done today with the varieties used. Between this and now there was a mini-ice age where the Earth noticeably cooled, then it became warm again then, in the 1970's scientists were contemplating another Ice Age was setting in. Now we are about to become crispy fried

There is also the factor of our Sun to consider- it is slowly getting hotter and bigger as time progresses. Despite this slow warming which over the life of the sun has increased by up to 20%, the Earth has been hotter and colder despite this slow but constant rise in power and output of the Sun. Now if anything is going to drive up temps it is the Sun. In about 1 billion years the sun will be far wamer and larger than what it is now and the Earth will be too hot for life. Perhaps we should blow up the Sun to stop what is certain Global Warming?

[[KMA]Avenger]

^thats how i feel when talking to "climate change supporters".


lets look at this logically and putting aside all the TOP experts who do not agree and who have exposed "climate change" as a fraud...


1, this planet is carbon based, all life on this planet is carbon based, that means no carbon=NO life. we breath oxygen and exhale carbon, our industry's put out carbon as does much of our transport systems as well as all the volcanoes, rotting bio-matter and the oceans...etc etc. that means the flora and fauna of the planet have something to breath, and in exchange we get oxygen so we can breath.

2, 1 volcano eruption puts out more CO2 than ALL of mans endeavours from the moment man first stepped on this planet through to the industrial age right up to this very moment...how the hell can man compete with that?!

3, if the "climate change supporters" are correct and CO2 is driving the climate, and if 1 single volcano can put out more CO2 than all of our activities, then what's the point of even trying to do anything about CO2 since 1 eruption will undo everything we do to combat "climate change", what are you going to do, cork up all the volcanoes on the planet? how about the oceans and rotting bio-matter, what are you going to do to stop the oceans putting out CO2???

4, over 90% of green houses gases are water vapour and something like 2 or 3% is actual CO2....or thereabouts.

5, @Baxter, if your that worried about "man made climate change", to the point you want the Govt to do something then you owe it to yourself to check out the film REGARDLESS of your internet problems.

6, there have been times in earth's history where there has been 100's if not 1000's of times more CO2 in the atmosphere and the world survived just fine. this is supported both by the earth geological and ice core data.

7, more CO2 means bigger and better harvests...that's fact!

8, the number 1 driver of the earth's climate is that big yellow ball in the sky, you only have to look at grape/wine harvests to see just how much influence the sun has over the planet.

9, FACT, the sun has a 11 year cooling and heating cycle...do you think that could have something to do with the ever changing climate?

10, i'm still waiting for an answer with regards to "carbon taxes" and how destroying industry will solve the "climate change" "problem".



edit:

how about "an inconvenient lie", i think thats closer to the mark. read this and tell me where the peer-review is in all this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ified.html

and then research Climate-gate, to see for yourself how the University of East Anglia’s Climate research unit (which supplies most of the data to the IPCC) and the IPCC itself has falsified data, refused access (even under a freedom of information request) to the source code for the models used to spit out all this crap about "climate change" and how the info was passed on to the BBC 5 weeks before it broke all over the web without the BBC investigating this damning evidence, and the whistle blower/s were forced to dump the info on the web because nobody wanted to touch it.

this is now a religion and under this new global religion of "Gaia" worship, those of us who do not agree that man is influencing the earth's climate are heretics....hmmm...the dark ages and witch burning ring any bells?!


if you want a "righteous" cause to believe in and want to save the planet, then speak out about all the environmental damage being cause by the dumping of DU (depleted uranium) all over the mid-east, speak out and demand our Govts crack down on corporations dumping there crap and waste in the oceans...etc etc etc...but 1 thing you should not be doing is buying into something that is at best a non-problem and at worst, an out and out lie in order to carry on de-industrialising the west and stopping developing country's from developing with the result millions of people all over the world are dying....

did you know that James Cameron (Titanic, Avatar, Terminator) and Sigourney Weaver, recently flew down to Brazil and begged them to not finish a damn the Brazilians are working on because of its "carbon" footprint and then when they were done, jumped on a filthy aeroplane back to their MASSIVE homes...why don't they lead by example and show us how to live with a zero "carbon" footprint, could it be because they know "man made climate change" is a joke?!

[Mister Sandman]

As i cannot make a lengthy reply as right now,

let me just state
Global Warming =! Climate Change.

Correct me if I am wrong, but, "An Inconvenient Truth" is focused on global warming.

Let us stick the the term Global Warming or Climate Change because they are two completely different terms.

[[KMA]Avenger]

"they" changed the term from "Global Cooling" to "Global Warming" to Climate Change" and now that's changed to "Anthropogenic Climate Change".

its all a VERY sick joke.

ps:

as much as loved James Cameron's film Avatar, it tells 2 truths, 1 how all standing army's of the world serve corporate interests. and 2, we should all worship the earth/nature.

those are the messages that film puts out and anyone here who doesn't believe that has no idea how Hollywood works.

[Kit-Fox]

Removed

[Ghoul]

Just to point out the rather basic error, the Sun is not getting hotter.

As far as we know it wont get hotter than its current total output, even during its red dwarf stage.

What will happen however is the change from a main sequence star to a red dwarf which will see the Sun expand greatly out to the orbit of about Mars (we think) and then slowly contract as it cools further. The expansion is caused by the loss of mass (and associated gravity pull) allowing the gases to expand outwards.

For the purposes of climate change the Sun is a non-event.

Actually the Sun is getting hotter and larger bit by bit. Looking at stars that are of a similar mass approximate to the sun (at birth) we have been able to work this out. Stars that are younger but of similar mass produce less overall energy (looking at indicators such as luminosity etc) and stars that are older are producing more energy.

When the sun runs out of its current fuel supply it will undergo a change inside which will bloat it to a Red Giant where it will become a lot larger and also produce a lot more energy- the suns luminosity will increase by up to 1000 times its current output.

At that point we will most probably fry in what will be a true global warming event

[Kit-Fox]

Removed

[Mister Sandman]

"they" changed the term from "Global Cooling" to "Global Warming" to Climate Change" and now that's changed to "Anthropogenic Climate Change".

its all a VERY sick joke.

However, they are all different terms.

Vague too.

I was just pointing out the the movie ' An Inconvenient Truth' talks about global warming. Not climate change. Enhanced GHG effect is global warming.

Global Warming/Cooling — An overall warming/cooling of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface.

Climate Change — Changes in regional climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events.

Now both of these definitions are true. It is happening, that is a fact, whether it be Anthropogenic ( Human caused) or via natural internal processes is the point of discussion.

The International Climate Change Partnership ( ICCP) is a international group of scientists, politicians and companies that supports the idea of Anthropogenic global warming.

Since the start of ICCP many climatologists have left due to the uncertainty of data coupled with unethical media releases for the hype of global warming. To this day the names of these scientists are still being put onto new releases although they do not support the status quo.


In response to the tornadoes questions.
They are categorised by wind speeds..... Just so you know that...

They also say the number of earth quakes are increasing...

The question is, if a tree falls in the woods and noones around does it make a sound? No. It doesnt.

Same principle. We as of now have greater ability to record, and measure natural hazards.

Responses to Australian Natural Disasters and Climate Change.

1. Drought - It is a well known fact Australia is the driest inhabited land in the world.
It was caused by a longer El Nino and La Nina Cycle. (ENSO) However, it was also the cause of poor water management and other factors.

the link between El Nino and global warming is very clear, and its not one of cause and effect, but rather of correlation. the two happen together, but neither is a cause of the other

lol wut

In the cause of NSW, in both cycles NSW is unlucky as most of the monsoonal rain hits QLD.

However, I will just come out and say, you are over exaggerating things here. global warming effects this cycle very little.

Infact, if you bother to look at past records the cycle is almost perfect in what happened. There is a pattern and the longer cycle was to be expected.

2 and 3 show no real evidence for Anthropogenic Climate Change. We all know reefs are fragile

[Jack]

The ICCP? Insane Class-Clown Posse?

[Thriller]

The ICCP? Insane Class-Clown Posse?

You can do better than that

[Ghoul]

Have you heard of the Main Sequence??

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... n_sequence

The Sun is part of the centre of the main sequence (ok only just but its in there)

A Red Dwarf star, is lower down in the sequence, the lower it gets in the sequence the cooler the star is.

Our Star is in fact entering the the last part of its life as a main sequence star, ok it'll take what? about 5billion years but as far as starts go that isnt long. As our star enters its final stages it will in fact cool & will get dimmer when observed from outside our solar system.

The Earth will get hotter by the sun expanding, not by the sun getting hotter. Its like a heater, sit 10ft away and your warm, but sit 3 ft away and your hot without changing the heat output of the heater.

It will get hotter before it turns into a Red Giant- all the time it will get more luminous. Luminosity and the energy produced that we cannot see per se are huge factors in this.

”The Earth’s period of habitability is nearly over — on a cosmological timescale. In a half to one billion years the Sun will start to be too luminous and warm for water to exist in liquid form on Earth, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect in less than 2 billion years.”

http://www.universetoday.com/37174/sun- ... port-life/

[Z E R O]

Have you heard of the Main Sequence??

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... n_sequence

The Sun is part of the centre of the main sequence (ok only just but its in there)

A Red Dwarf star, is lower down in the sequence, the lower it gets in the sequence the cooler the star is.

Our Star is in fact entering the the last part of its life as a main sequence star, ok it'll take what? about 5billion years but as far as starts go that isnt long. As our star enters its final stages it will in fact cool & will get dimmer when observed from outside our solar system.

The Earth will get hotter by the sun expanding, not by the sun getting hotter. Its like a heater, sit 10ft away and your warm, but sit 3 ft away and your hot without changing the heat output of the heater.

It will get hotter before it turns into a Red Giant- all the time it will get more luminous. Luminosity and the energy produced that we cannot see per se are huge factors in this.

”The Earth’s period of habitability is nearly over — on a cosmological timescale. In a half to one billion years the Sun will start to be too luminous and warm for water to exist in liquid form on Earth, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect in less than 2 billion years.”

http://www.universetoday.com/37174/sun- ... port-life/

I think it's safe to say anything Sun related is beyond the realm of our concern. IF humans survive another 500m years (and that's one hell of an if) Then our Sun could be a problem... but i'm sure by that time we'll have left this planet or become extinct long ago.

[Ghoul]

Have you heard of the Main Sequence??

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... n_sequence

The Sun is part of the centre of the main sequence (ok only just but its in there)

A Red Dwarf star, is lower down in the sequence, the lower it gets in the sequence the cooler the star is.

Our Star is in fact entering the the last part of its life as a main sequence star, ok it'll take what? about 5billion years but as far as starts go that isnt long. As our star enters its final stages it will in fact cool & will get dimmer when observed from outside our solar system.

The Earth will get hotter by the sun expanding, not by the sun getting hotter. Its like a heater, sit 10ft away and your warm, but sit 3 ft away and your hot without changing the heat output of the heater.

It will get hotter before it turns into a Red Giant- all the time it will get more luminous. Luminosity and the energy produced that we cannot see per se are huge factors in this.

”The Earth’s period of habitability is nearly over — on a cosmological timescale. In a half to one billion years the Sun will start to be too luminous and warm for water to exist in liquid form on Earth, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect in less than 2 billion years.”

http://www.universetoday.com/37174/sun- ... port-life/

I think it's safe to say anything Sun related is beyond the realm of our concern. IF humans survive another 500m years (and that's one hell of an if) Then our Sun could be a problem... but i'm sure by that time we'll have left this planet or become extinct long ago.

In 1.2mil years we can hitch a ride with an Orange Dwarf expected to pass very very close to the solar system with high probability of planets that will last a lot longer- solved

[[KMA]Avenger]

still waiting to see if you are going to debate me on the points and facts of my post....