Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

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Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

ramen07 wrote:
[KMA]Avenger wrote:What doesn't make sense mate is bailing out the banking industry because it was reckless gambling on the derivatives market with it's customers funds and us bailing them out to the global tune of Quadrillions, but not taking adequate precautions on something the entire planet is so dependant on...regardless of the frequency of CME events.


That reckless gambling is what makes global economy turn. Reckless investment = money flowing into businesses = capital for stocking a product, R&D, even (if the large corporations have the heart) investment into smaller businesses. Without risky investments, there is no room for real growth.



That reckless gambling is designed to do 1 thing and 1 thing only, indebt the entire world and bankrupt whole nations and if you are a corporation or 1 of the "to big to fails" the shut down of your competition, to the point you can buy up nations infrastructure and resources for pennies, and to make "the to big to fails" even bigger so we what we hear from the govt, from the media and from "the to big to fails" is "bail us out or the sky will fall". as John D Rockefeller said "competition is a sin".

It does NOTHING to improve the economy or promote growth, Greece and the rest of the "PIIGS" nations are a perfect example of this. if you want growth and prosperity you need to have a true free market. that means getting rid of the private for-profit corporate central banking system thereby you can reduce taxes which promotes entrepreneurship and creativity...the US pre 1913 is a perfect example of this.

The bottom line is that you cannot have prosperity and stability with the current system because it cannot function without boom and bust cycles which only helps those who are on the inside and who openly engage in insider trading.

Also, look at the MF Global scandal, Jon Corzine has been caught red handed engaging in perjury and defrauding his customers by raiding segregated accounts to pay off J.P.Morgan because Jon Corzine borrowed money to make 40 to 1 bets on Euro currencies. it's now come out that when said currencies went belly up Jamie Dimon threatened Corzine with his life if he didnt pay up. this was a deliberate act on Dimon's part to bankrupt and destroy MF Global because he knew MF Global didn't have the money. when Corzine paid the first instalment demanded by JPM, JPM demanded written assurances the money did not come from the segregated customer accounts. Corzine and MFG gave no such assurance and instead sent the money to JPM which resulted in the collapse and bankruptcy of MFG.

The MFG scandal is a big subject, and as i said, Corzine has perjured himself lying to congress and nothing has been done to him.

The MFG scandal is not an isolated incident, such corruption is endemic and built into the current financial system. the system has no money, it's as bankrupt as Greece, that's fact anyone can verify, all you have to do is look at the "bailouts", at the end of the day what is a bailout, it's nothing more than printing money out of thin air and putting the debt on the general population who does not owe the debt but is forced to pay it through taxes Both open taxation such as tax increases and austerity, and stealth taxation such as inflation, deflation and currency devaluation. to prove that, all you have to do is look at all the "austerity" inflation and fuel price hikes of the past 4 years, and it's only going to get worse to the point of collapse, and what will the bankers suggest is the solution? a single currency, possibly a basket of currencies known as special drawing rights (SDR's for short) or a cashless society. Sweden is already moving towards a cashless society. i saw an article last week (didn't read it). headlines was something like "Sweden moving towards cashless society". Russia, China, Japan, India and Iran have all been striking mega-deals in the past few weeks without using the dollar. India has recently struck a deal to buy Iran's oil and to pay for that oil in gold and not the petrodollar...oh, our leaders and the UN in their infinite wisdom really knew what they were doing when they decided to put embargoes on Iran...the term, "shooting yourself in the foot (with both barrels in both feet, i would add)" comes to mind!

Don't take my word for it, go check it out for yourself.



If fuel is any kind of indicator of inflation and currency value destruction, then i will tell you that when i 1st stated driving i didn't even bother looking at the cost of petrol, i paid £10 and got OVER half a tank of petrol, now i pay £30+ to get the same, i don't have to tell you the obvious loss of value in my money ;) I also don't have to tell you that if you ask someone older than me they will tell you they used to get even more fuel for £10 than i did when they were young.
I also assume i don't have to tell you that in the past 100 years we have seen the loss 0f 90+% of the purchasing power of our money....you do the math and then tell me with a straight face that this promotes growth.



That's obviously my reply, i did it here so it wouldn't derail the 2013 thread. @everyone, please feel free to discuss anything and everything to do with the economy in general, not just the current economic situation.
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Re: Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

ramen07 wrote:That reckless gambling is what makes global economy turn. Reckless investment = money flowing into businesses = capital for stocking a product, R&D, even (if the large corporations have the heart) investment into smaller businesses. Without risky investments, there is no room for real growth.


The Global economy relies on money circulating, everyone earning money through business or employment, production or sales, spending it and being taxed on income and sales to pay for the public sector.

If the banks had been investing in real businesses and R&D the collapse would not have happened, and if they were investing in these things now since the bailouts we would have growth and recovery, but they did NOT and they are NOT now, they instead have moved to accumilating money in the hands of the few through non-tangible betting products and scams to take money from all sides, and thereby reducing the amount in circulation.





The banks were artificially hyping bad investments as good to sell them, insuring against losses and betting against the investment products they sold to customers/other banks, it was huge scam built on inflated and unsustainable property prices that any fool could see was going to collapse in on itself eventually, but instead of avoiding the scam almost every bank and investment firm saw the short term gains and thought mmm lets have a bite of that pie gambling that they could get in make money and get out before it collapsed.



Look at the SubPrime mortgage for one example

1) Banks lend to 100Ks of individuals to buy properties that are over priced with repayments the individuals cant afford at insane interest rates.

2) The banks making the loans dont have the money to make them, so they in turn need borrow the money at the lower interest rate to make a profit. So they bundle the mortgages into packages of say 1K, this way they can say 'even if x% default there will will be a profit, they sell these mortgage packages on to other banks.

3) The bank that buy these packages then bundle and bury them into other products to attract investors like pension funds, individual investment portfolio's etc. By spreading the risk further they get great 'investment product' ratings

4) Banks then encourage 100Ks more people to take out these insane mortgages through hard selling, the property boom takes off as the more people who are buying property, the higher the property prices go, and the higher the property prices go the more people will borrow to buy, or borrow against equity to treat themselves. Throughout this they propergate the false premise that property prices can NOT go down to make people feel safe borrowing.

5) Wage increases cant match the property prices so people are borrowing far more than they can afford and the system reaches critical, the mortgages become extremely high risk but because of earlier performance the products these mortgages are bundled in on still keep the 'excelent or AAA' investment rating, everyone is buying in on these investment products without even knowing what they based on.

6) The banks see that the system is reaching critical and about to fail, but instead of downgrading the products, reducing interest rates and profits to sustain the products they look at it as 'right this is going to fail, how to we make money out of it failing'

5) Some bright spark then realise that if they take out multiple insurance policies against the same product, and bet on that product failing, they can them make even more money by causing the product to fail that by keeping it going.

6) Banks bet against their own products while still selling the products as AAA to unsuspecting investors.

7) Banks raise interest rates to cause defaults, defaults flood the property market with lower priced property, each default has a domino effect as the seller tried to undercut the other properties for a quick sale, the property market crashes.

8 ) With the property market crash the investment products these mortgages are packaged in all fail

9) The banks that created the package investment products claim on insurance and reap the benefits of betting against their own products

10) All the smaller banks, investment firm, pension funds, and other investors who bought the packaged investment products lose their shirts

11) High street banks which bought these products now owe more to their customers than they have because the value of their investments in these products has fallen through the floor

12) Governments realise that the high street functions of banks are now essential to day to day life so cant be allowed to go bust, so they have to use public money to bail out or buy out the banks.




NOTE

There are two types on banks in the above

1) Those that created the SubPrime mortgage packages, sold them on, insured and betted against them and made a ton of money first through selling them, then from the losses ( Banks like Goldman Sachs ). These banks are guilty of fraud on a massive scale.

2) The banks that bought the packaged investment products with AAA ratings and lost a fortune needing to be bailed out. These bank are guilty of negligence for not properly researching of making risk assessments of what the products were, basically they looking the other way while the profits were good.








A couple of simple laws could have prevented this, and could if introduced prevent it happening again..

1) Separate 'high street bank' from 'Investment banks'. This way if an investment bank goes bust, fine let them go bust just like any other badly run business.

2) Investment product ratings need to have legal definitions, a AAA rating should mean the bank guarantee's no losses, when a bank uses product ratings they should be bound by the legal definitions.

3) Capping investment insurance and Credit Default Swaps to a level where you can only recover losses, NOT profit by betting against an investment product.

4) Limit bank size through monopoly rules to prevent any single bank being 'to bit to fail'

5) Ban lobbyists from making payment to politicians or political parties, restrict them to making public arguments for laws they want.

Of course the banks dont want this, they like being able to gamble and they like being so big the governments will always have to bail them out.... that is why Banking has the biggest and highest value lobbyists in the US and EU, bigger that weapons, drugs or any other, they buy the law and see buying the law as just another investment in their own future.
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Re: Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

Just 1 thing to add to that MEZZ, i think at any 1 time there is 2Quadrillion $ worth of derivatives floating (not sure about the figure, i think it maybe more than 2quad. i say 2 quad but if anyone knows better please correct me). the derivative market is also a bubble, and as we all know, bubbles burst, when that bubble bursts it will make 1929 and 08 look like mere hiccups.





Before anyone says that i am dreaming or scaremongering, think of it like this...Greece's total debt is a few hundred billion, not allot in the grand scheme of things, and yet Greece is single handedly dragging down the EU (to say nothing of the other EU nations also in serious financial trouble who have debts that range from double to 4 times the debt of Greece), what's going to happen when a market of 2 Quadrillion goes pop? people are being driven to breaking point and we have leaders who say things like this: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news ... reggs.html

When the derivatives market goes pop as well...well, you guys figure it out. suffice to say that the money wont even be worth burning. only this time things have changed. in 1929 i think it was something like 90% of people were self sufficient. this time though that 90% has been reduced to 10% and it's the vast majority who are not able to fend for themselves...how ya like big Govt now peeps? big Govt doing all our thinking for us and not letting us live how we should live has resulted in MASSIVE cultural changes so huge that 90% of the general public wouldnt now what to do if the Govt tit (social security) vanished over night....the images of headless chickens and people screaming they will do anything so long as "they" turn the system back on comes to mind


Anyways, we will sprout wings and fly off to never never land before our Govts do the right thing and reintroduce the legislation that the banks lobbied to have removed which resulted in this fiasco. the same legislation that was introduced after the great depression so another great depression would never happen again.

History is the best teacher do we listen and learn?! we choose to think that with all our modern tech that we are somehow smarter than those who lived through the great depression...and yet, we find ourselves in the same crap they were in.


Edit: this is an article by an ex-Goldman Sachs director that everyone should read, especially page 2: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opini ... ml?_r=2&hp
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Re: Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

Looks like I missed quite a bit when I went out of town to hicksville OH...let me get my bearings and then I'll post ;)
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Re: Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

I have to agree with Mezz. I failed to separate "risky investment" in R&D and all out war on investors (points 4-9) #-o

MEZZANINE wrote:NOTE

There are two types on banks in the above

1) Those that created the SubPrime mortgage packages, sold them on, insured and betted against them and made a ton of money first through selling them, then from the losses ( Banks like Goldman Sachs ). These banks are guilty of fraud on a massive scale.


Where was the SEC and Fed for this?
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Re: Replying to ramen07 and general economic discussion.

I assume you do know that for many years now there has been a revolving door policy between industries and the regulatory and watchdog bodies? if so, then it's simple to figure out where the watchdogs and feds were when the stuff hit the fan :-)
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